by Carl Fox

Homebuyer interest in relocating to a different part of the country accelerated as the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the first half of 2020 and reached its peak at the beginning of this year before declining slightly and leveling out. Now, homebuyers are showing significantly more interest in relocating than before the pandemic, when levels stood at 25% to 26%.

Nationwide, 30.3% of Redfin.com users looked to move to a different metro area in October and November, according to a new report. That’s down from a record-high 31.5% in the first quarter of 2021 but well above pre-pandemic levels.

“At the beginning of the pandemic, remote work gave homebuyers the opportunity to consider a new location,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “Now the labor market is incredibly tight, which means even homebuyers with in-person occupations can move somewhere new and be confident they can secure employment in their new town.”

The oppressive new restrictions being put in place in Chicago, New York, and Boston are likely a major factor for the migration from blue states to red.

Influx of homebuyers into South Florida continues

South Florida was the most popular migration destination for the fourth month in a row. Next come Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento and Tampa. Two other Florida metros also appear on the top 10, with Cape Coral taking the number seven spot and North Port coming in 10th. The popularity of migration destinations is determined by net inflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to move into a metro than leave.

Florida has become a particularly popular destination this year as remote workers and retirees flock to the state in search of freedom from COVID restrictions, beaches, warm weather, low taxes and more affordable housing than big cities on the East Coast or West Coast. Net inflow into Miami has nearly tripled since this time last year, and net inflow into Tampa has nearly doubled, with New York as the number-one origin for people moving to those areas.

“More than half of my active clients are either investors or people who are relocating, coming from places like California, Oregon, New York and New Jersey,” said Miami Redfin agent Cristina Llanos. “The relocators tend to be young remote workers who are moving to Miami for the affordability and sunshine. One client said they’re coming to Miami because they hate the snow; another wants to raise their kids in an ethnically diverse city.”

Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top OriginsRankMetro*Net Inflow,
October &
November
2021+Net Inflow,
October &
November
2020Portion of
Searches from
Users Outside the
Metro, October
& November
2021Portion of
Searches from
Users Outside the
Metro, October
& November
2020Top OriginTop Out-
of-State
Origin 1Miami, FL9,3763,17032.0%26.4%New York, NYNew York, NY2Phoenix, AZ8,6837,66435.4%36.2%Los Angeles, CALos Angeles, CA3Las Vegas, NV6,6107,81942.5%52.1%Los Angeles, CALos Angeles, CA4Sacramento, CA6,4037,94540.8%49.1%San Francisco, CASeattle, WA5Tampa, FL6,0113,95045.8%56.4%Orlando, FLNew York, NY6Dallas, TX5,1035,95525.3%31.4%Los Angeles, CALos Angeles, CA7Cape Coral, FL4,3663,15467.1%75.1%Chicago, ILChicago, IL8San Antonio, TX4,3452,26542.9%44.0%Houston, TXLos Angeles, CA9Atlanta, GA4,1646,45920.0%26.7%New York, NYNew York, NY10North Port, FL4,0442,21165.2%77.1%Chicago, ILChicago, IL *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2021+Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only

Homebuyers are leaving big cities like San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York

San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Seattle top the list of places Redfin.com users looked to leave in October and November. That’s according to net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com home searchers looked to leave a metro than move in.

Big, authoritarian, expensive coastal cities typically top the list of places poeple are looking to leave, a trend that has accelerated with the pandemic and remote-work options. Many big-city dwellers with white-collar jobs are able to work remotely from more affordable locations with a lot of recreational opportunities.

Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top DestinationsRankMetro*Net Outflow,
October &
November
2021Net Outflow,
October
& November
2020Portion of
Local Users
Searching
Elsewhere,
October &
November
2021Portion of
Local Users
Searching
Elsewhere,
October &
November
2020Top
DestinationTop Out-
of-State
Destination1San Francisco, CA41,40733,71022.9%24.0%Sacramento, CASeattle, WA2Los Angeles, CA33,88920,87919.2%18.0%San Diego, CAPhoenix, AZ3New York, NY23,32037,44726.7%35.2%Philadelphia, PAPhiladelphia, PA4Washington, DC15,80510,28214.7%12.9%Salisbury, MDSalisbury, MD5Seattle, WA13,1282,52816.3%14.1%Phoenix, AZPhoenix, AZ6Boston, MA7,81531215.9%12.2%Portland, MEPortland, ME7Chicago, IL5,6785,81912.5%12.3%Cape Coral, FLCape Coral, FL8Denver, CO2,6754,43325.6%27.7%Chicago, ILChicago, IL9Minneapolis, MN1,518-97722.2%18.2%Chicago, ILChicago, IL10Detroit, MI1,31371023.8%22.6%Grand Rapids, MIChicago, IL *Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2021+Among the one million users sampled for this analysis only

If the Democrats are unhappy with the 2020 census results, the 2030 census (just 8 years away) are going to be much, much worse.

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